Rupee Appreciation Was A Response To General Dollar Weakness: ICICI

The government has set a $160 billion target for exports this fiscal year, ending in March 2008. Unless it introduces significantly more tax breaks and other incentives for exporters, it is unlikely to meet that estimate, said Samiran Chakrabarty, chief economist at India''s largest private lender, ICICI Bank. You will not see an unfettered momentum in the rupee, the central bank is likely to intervene going forward. His prediction for exports is $150-$152 billion, with a downward bias.The rupee was estimated by ICICI Bank to be at 39 to 39.50 against the dollar by year end, at a time when it assumed a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut. Chakrabarty said the appreciation was more a response to a general dollar weakness. If you look at the index of a real effective exchange rate, on a relative basis the rupee has not appreciated so much. It''s moved by 1.5% from a pre- to post-Fed rate cut span, while the Euro has risen over 2%.