Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Yahoo 1Q Profit Rises, But Microsoft Bid Likely To Stand Pat

San Francisco: Yahoo Inc. delivered first-quarter results that eclipsed analysts' modest expectations, but the performance did little to support the Internet pioneer's demands for software maker Microsoft Corp. to raise its takeover bid above $45 billion.

The Sunnyvale-based company said Tuesday that it earned $542.2 million, or 37 cents per share, more than triple its profit of $142.4 million, or 10 cents per share, at the same time last year.

Most of the first-quarter improvement stemmed from a non-cash gain of $401 million recorded to recognize Yahoo's stake in the parent company of Alibaba.com, a leading e-commerce site in China that went public last year.

If not for the Alibaba windfall, Yahoo would have earned 11 cents per share — comparable to its profit at the same time last year, on an apples-to-apples basis.

The earnings were two cents above the average estimate on the same basis among analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

Perhaps even more importantly, Yahoo provided the same full-year revenue outlook that it made in late January — just two days before Microsoft made its unsolicited bid.

"This doesn't change the picture much at all," Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Marianne Wolk said.

Yahoo's first-quarter revenue climbed 9 per cent to $1.82 billion.

After subtracting commissions Yahoo paid its advertising partners, its revenue totaled $1.35 billion — just $30 million ahead of analysts' average projection.

Investors didn't seem to be impressed as Yahoo shares shed 15 cents in extended trading after dipping a penny to finish the regular session at $28.54.

The first-quarter numbers provided a reminder of the ever-widening gap separating Yahoo from Google, whose profit during the same period climbed 30 per cent to $1.3 billion on revenue that rose 42 per cent to $5.2 billion.

Now it appears more likely the standoff between Yahoo and Microsoft will be resolved in a divisive battle that could drag on into the summer, opening the door for Google to grow even stronger while its two rivals are distracted by their duel.

Microsoft has threatened to oust Yahoo's board if the 10 directors don't accept the current offer Saturday. That risky course of action, known as a proxy contest, probably wouldn't be settled until Yahoo's shareholder meeting, which doesn't have to be held until July.

The cash-and-stock bid — valued at $44.6 billion, or $31 per share, when it was first made — is now worth about $43 billion, or $29.88 per share.

Without specifying a precise price, Yahoo has maintained it's worth more to Microsoft even though its shares had fallen below $20 before the bid.

Yahoo gained a little more credibility to its argument by topping analysts' estimates, said Canaccord Adams analyst Collin Gillis. "They cleared another hurdle," he said. "You can't take a strong stance on your value and then not deliver the earnings."

Steve Ballmer, Microsoft's chief executive officer, reiterated the software maker has no plans to sweeten its offer. "We think we can accelerate our strategy by buying Yahoo and will pay what makes sense for our shareholders," Ballmer said in remarks made before Yahoo's first-quarter report came out.

Jerry Yang, Yahoo's co-founder, CEO and a board member, made it clear the company won't sell to Microsoft unless the bid is raised. "Our ability to execute on multiple fronts is clearly improving," he told analysts during a Tuesday conference call.

Yahoo expects its revenue to increase more dramatically in 2009 and 2010 as the benefits from its expanded Internet advertising network start to kick in. "We feel we are on the verge of fundamentally changing the game," Sue Decker, Yahoo's president, said in Tuesday's conference call.

An experimental advertising partnership with Google also could help boost Yahoo's profit.

Yang and Decker to declined to discuss the Google tests, which began two weeks ago. Analysts believe a long-term partnership between Yahoo and Google would be difficult to pull off because of the antitrust concerns that would raised, given the two companies control more than 80 per cent of the U.S. search market.

Yahoo also has been exploring a possible merger with the Internet operations of Time Warner Inc.'s AOL, which has been struggling in recent years.

"We will not enter into any transaction that doesn't recognize the full value of this company," Yang said.

The confident tone of Yahoo's management on Tuesday contrasted with a more glum attitude in late January when Yang warned economic "headwinds" might complicate the company's turnaround efforts.

Given the Microsoft bid, Global Crown Capital analyst Martin Pyykkonen said the company's optimism should be taken with a grain of salt. "You almost have to discount anything positive management has to say because they are just trying to get the (sale) price up," he said.

Microsoft's bid conceivably could rise above its original value without management upping the ante. It might happen if Microsoft's own quarterly earnings report — due out Thursday — pushes its shares above $32.60. Microsoft's stock price finished Tuesday at $30.25, down 17 cents.

Many analysts believe Microsoft will raise its offer to between $32 and $35 per share, or about $46 billion to $50 billion, to prevent its prickly courtship of Yahoo from becoming even more acrimonious.

Microsoft stands a better chance of making the complex deal work if it has Yahoo's cooperation during the daunting process of melding the two companies' disparate cultures and technologies.

Yahoo ended March with 13,800 employees, down from 14,300 workers at the end of 2007. The company jettisoned more than 1,000 workers during the first quarter, but offset some of the purge by hiring about 600 new employees.

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